A harsh winter could effectively double that," said Emmanuel Dubois-Pelerin, a managing director at S&P Global Ratings. "Europe is currently risking a shortfall of around 7-8% of demand over the winter, around 20 billion cubic metres (bcm). Russian gas now comprises less than 8% of Europe's supply, down from around 40% before Moscow invaded Ukraine - and Brussels has warned a full shut-off is possible. EU countries have filled their gas tanks to an average of about 92% of capacity, by snapping up non-Russian gas at record prices in recent months to build a supply buffer, as Moscow progressively cut deliveries after Western sanctions in response to the Ukraine war that began in February.īut some analysts warn this alone will not compensate for the loss of Europe's main gas supplier - and a cold winter would make this worse. Gas storage buffers should help, but not for all weather scenarios. ![]() MILD OR COLDĪ cold spell-induced uptick in gas demand could collide with reduced renewable power generation, as high pressure systems tend to mean less wind and rain - although a trend for such systems to have less cloud cover could boost solar output. "The demand from households will be a huge question mark," said Cuneyt Kazokoglu, director of energy economics at consultancy FGE. A cold spell in late September saw gas consumption among German households and small industry jump to 14.5% above the average for the same week in the past four years. But the forecast offers an early indication to companies and governments attempting to assess how much gas will be needed to heat homes.Ī cold snap could increase that demand. ![]() Medium term forecasts can't predict with certainty that an event will occur, or its duration - "blocking patterns" of high pressure can last just a week, or longer. "If we have a drop in temperature, we could expect an uptick in energy demand for heating," Buontempo said. But ECMWF's models show a higher than usual chance of a high pressure system developing over Europe in December, bringing cold air from Siberia and Central Asia and causing a drop in temperature of potentially several degrees. And if anything, the risk is slightly higher than usual," Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at ECMWF, told Reuters.įor the next few weeks, the weather in Western Europe is looking mild, thanks to warm westerly winds from the North Atlantic. "There is still a very significant risk of having a cold outbreak.
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